Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Fake Money

This football season I've decided to start betting on 4 or 5 games a week. Mind you - we have no money and we also have seven mouths to feed on a single salary... needless to say - I had to be responsible (and creative).

The plan: I came up with a spreadsheet showing all of the games for any given week, along with the point spread and the odds taken from The spreadsheet calculates how much I win based on the fake money that I wager. I know... I know... this may seem pathetic to some - but for me it quells my competitive urges while guaranteeing that I keep food on the table for the wife and kids. See - when it comes to sports betting, I'm not motivated by $$, I'm motivated by being able to be more successful than my friend Bill (who I have convinced him to participate in this ridiculousness with me). Like every other fantasy sports endeavor that we embark upon, I'm bound to kick his ass.

We each started the season with a bankroll of $1000, and I'm trying, as best I can, to wager with this "money" as if it were real cash (although I was tempted to throw $500 on the Bengals (-6) in Week 2 over the Browns (-Frye) good thing I didn't do it). Week one I went 2-3 and lost about $30. Week 2 I went 2-2-1 and pretty much broke even. I have yet to have that big week, but this week is it... I'm sure. This week I'm taking the following 2 games as definite locks:

Detroit vs. Philadelphia (-6.5) at -110 odds:
I've had the opportunity to watch the Eagles for two games and their offense looks PATHETIC. The Eagles, again, have no legitimate WR threat. Everytime they throw to Curtis, he's covered like muslim woman. Their special teams suck and McNabb has clearly lost a step. The defense looks solid, but doesn't make up for what they lack on offense and special teams. Detroit has gone 2-0 and are looking really good in the first 2 weeks under offensive coordinator, Mike Martz. The Lions are looking to make a statement by coming into Philadelphia and winning against a "top" opponent. This is one of those games, I think, that the line is completely flipped if this game were to be played in week 14. Detroit 17, Iggles 10.

San Diego vs. Green Bay (+3.5) at -110 odds:
I'll take the home dog on this one. San Diego's offense has yet to get it going. Granted they've played the best two defenses in the league, but I think they are playing the 3rd best this week. Green Bay's defense has given up just 13 PPG after 2 weeks. San Diego is coming off of a short week as well and Philip Rivers can't seem to clear his head. Give me the Packers at Lambeau. Packers 24, Chargers 21.

I won't bother wasting your time with my picks from the past two weeks, but I'll post my results on Monday for this week's games. Please take pleasure in seeing how much I suck at this...